Pierre, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS63 KABR 200709
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
209 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20-30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms are possible
  across northeast SD and west central MN mainly through this
  morning.

- Dry conditions are expected Friday through Saturday. A 30-60
  percent chance for showers and thunderstorms will return to the
  area the latter half of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Conditions remain fairly quiet across the forecast area early this
morning as sfc high pressure continues to drift southeast across
southeast SD, southern MN and WI. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure across
northern ND is shifting eastward with a trough extending south and
west into western/central ND into northwest SD.

The sfc trough, more or less, will become a weak cold front that is
progged to sag south through the CWA today. A 20-30 percent chance
for a few showers and storms will be possible this morning across
northeast SD/west central MN. Not expecting anything substantial in
terms of precip or severe weather. But, the presence of a low level
jet will be enough to maintain activity through the morning hours.
Redevelopment of afternoon storms appear more likely just to the
east and south of our forecast area. Mid-level lapse rates aren`t
all that impressive in our area this afternoon until you get farther
south into the Central Plains. Interestingly enough, HREF ensemble
paintball product hints at some afternoon convection across our
eastern zones. Despite MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and deep
layer shear of 35-40 kts across our far southeast corner of the CWA
this afternoon, the latest NBM along with several CAM solutions came
in dry, so we`ll maintain a dry forecast for now. SPC`s Day 1 severe
weather outlook clips our southeast corner with a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) this afternoon, so changes in model trends during the
daytime hours will need to be monitored and modify the dry forecast
if needed. Behind the frontal passage, winds will become northerly
by the afternoon and turn gusty between 20-30 mph.

Sfc high pressure will build south and east into the eastern Dakotas
and western MN tonight through Friday. 500mb heights will be on the
rise across the Dakotas on Friday and into the first half of the
weekend. This should effectively give our area a couple of dry days
Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should remain at or slight above
normal and humidity values will remain comfortable as dew point
temperatures in the 50s to low 60s are expected. The next upper
trough is progged to crash over the top of the ridge the latter half
of the weekend. Return flow on the backside of a high pressure
system and potential interaction with a nocturnal low level jet will
kick off our next round of showers and thunderstorms across central
SD on Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into
Monday morning across portions of central SD and most of eastern SD
and western MN. Longer range guidance shows the potential for a cold
front to pass through the region early next week that could deliver
more precip opportunities to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Overall dry conditions are forecast for the TAF terminals (along
with VFR cigs) through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be
out of the south and southwest this morning before switching
westerly, then northwesterly behind a cold front. This switch
will occur at KPIR/KMBG this morning and KABR/KATY midday into
the afternoon. Gusty winds are also forecast behind the front
this afternoon, ranging between 15-20kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM